Improved Forecast Accuracy in Airline Revenue Management by Unconstraining Demand Estimates from Censored Data
Richard H. ZeniISBN: 1581121415;
Accurate forecasts are crucial to a revenue management system. Poor estimates of demand lead to inadequate inventory controls and sub-optimal revenue performance. Forecasting for airline revenue management systems is inherently difficult. Competitive actions, seasonal factors, the economic environment, and constant fare changes are a few of the hurdles that must be overcome. In addition, the fact that most of the historical demand data is censored further complicates the problem. This dissertation examines the challenge of forecasting for an airline revenue management system in the presence of censored demand data. The number of seats an airline can sell on a flight is determined by the booking limits set by the revenue management system. An airline continues to accept reservations in a fare class until the booking limit is reached. At that point, the airline stops selling seats in that fare class-It also stops collecting valuable data. Demand for travel in that fare class...
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