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Paul Goodwin, George Wright

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

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ISBN: 0470861088, 9780470861080
Издательство: John Wiley & Sons
Год издания: 2003
Страниц: 492
Decision analysis can play a valuable role in helping people to make decisions that involve risks or multiple objectives, but potential users are often deterred by the presentation of the subject in a mathematical form. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators. Written in a user-friendly style, with little or no mathematical notation, and using practical examples, the book is unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It demonstrates the pitfalls associated with unaided decision making and shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in structured ways so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established. Extended and updated, this new edition contains a new chapter on structured risk and uncertainty management, updated coverage of research on how people make decisions, including fast and frugal heuristics, a detailed case study demonstrating the application of...